Wild Mass Guessing

[stealthx]

...
We know the Iocrym fear an evil locked inside the QZ. Call this entity X. ...

Bah! Can't you call it somethin' else?

[george moromisato]

Awesome analysis, Atarlost. I'm going to comment a bit on each statement:

1. [Atarlost] We know someone known to the Iocrym as Domina proposed the sterilization of the QZ. Call this entity D1.
TRUE: We know this from the Iocrym AI (which, of course, could be lying or in error, but ignore that for now).

2. [Atarlost] We know someone claiming to be Domina is trying to break the quarantine by sending pilgrims against it. Call this entity D2.
TRUE: We know from multiple sources, not least being the player character, that D2 is helping pilgrims to leave the quarantine zone.

3. [Atarlost] We know that the Ares claim to be followers of someone called Domina. Call this entity D3.
UNKNOWN: I forget whether this is revealed in-game or from my design notes or commentary [maybe someone find an in-game reference?]. Are the Ares considered "human" by Domina, Oracus, and the Ancient Races? If so, then I think there is no conflict between D3 and D2.

4. [Atarlost] We know the Iocrym fear an evil locked inside the QZ. Call this entity X.
TRUE: We know this from the Iocrym AI.

5. [Atarlost] We know there is a human extinction movement following someone using the name Oracus. Call this entity O.
UNKNOWN: Again, I think this is from early design notes and my commentary. I don't think this is revealed in-game [at least, the Penitents themselves never say anything to the player--again, correct me if I'm wrong.]

6. [Atarlost] D1 and O definitely have the same goals but different means.
UNKNOWN: I think the only evidence of this is statement #5.

7. [Atarlost] D2 and D3 are at odds with D1 and O and their goals are in line with freeing X.
COMMENT: D1 and D2 could be the same, if D2's goal is to allow a small number of humans to leave, but not everyone. [More difficult to explain is why D2 doesn't tell the Iocrym to let some people through.]

8. [Atarlost] The followers of D2 believe D2 and D3 are not the same entity.
UNKNOWN: Why is that? Is that because the player fights the Ares?

9. [Atarlost] D2 and O are real and not the inventions of priesthoods as evidenced by their magic. D3 cannot be proven at this time definitively to be more than the imaginings of the Ares priesthood.
TRUE

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The reason this is an interesting discussion for me is that I want to make sure that the storyline in Part I is consistent with what will happen in Part II, but at the same time, has a little bit of ambiguity.

I think the goal of Part I should be to allow for multiple theories. In Part II, some of those theories should be disproven. I confess that Part I needs work in that area--I think it needs more clues and I also think that some existing clues are needlessly misleading. So this exercise is useful for me.

If that's the goal, Atarlost's analysis points out that there are two problems with the storyline so far:

1. The storyline needs to allow for the possibility of D1 and D2 being the same. How do we do that?
2. The storyline needs to allow for the possibility of O being opposed to D1. How do we do that?

If we fix those two things (in-game), then I think a lot more theories open up.

[Aury]

Out of curiosity, what is the status of information released in those early design notes & commentaries we've been referencing?

[Drako Slyith]

I think I should add one more point: the syrtians were led by an entity (probably entity D3) to declare war on Earth. If this is indeed D3, then it would be safe to say D3 wanted to destroy Earth and many pilgrims, so they don't like people from Earth and don't want people to break the quarantine. Therefore, D2 and D3 are not the same entity. Both D1 and D3 make a side believe they are Domina (Whether this is true or not remains to be seen) and are told by their respective entities to destroy Earth, either in war or by creating a supernova nearby. D1 and D3 begin to look like they are the same Entity.

[Curudan]

I think I should add one more point: the syrtians were led by an entity (probably entity D3) to declare war on Earth. If this is indeed D3, then it would be safe to say D3 wanted to destroy Earth and many pilgrims, so they don't like people from Earth and don't want people to break the quarantine.

Unless whatever entity ordered the bombardment of earth knew that the Ares wouldn't be able to completely destroy Earth, and would be eventually defeated. And that the war between the Ares and Earth government (and eventually the Commonwealth) would spur great military advancements. Advancements that would be needed if any human pilgrims would stand a chance against ancient races on the way to the core.

The lamplighter stands as the ultimate example of what the war achieved in terms of military technology. Just compare it to the weapons that were common prior to the war, and it seems pretty clear that the player wouldn't stand a chance against the ancient races without the war.

[Drako Slyith]

Right, in which case Entity D2 and D3 are the same. Of course, it might even be that D1, D2, and D3 are all the same, and want to make it possible, but a challenge for the pilgrims to get out; they have to prove themselves worthy.

[Atarlost]

5 is from your design notes, but supported by one of the Commonwealth station rumors:

Code: Select all

"You drink through 5 credits while talking to an attractive Sister: \"The Sisters of Domina believe in the power of transcendence, but we worship Domina because she brings life and beauty. Say, you're not a Penitent, are you? Good! The Penitents only care about power and death—Oracus controls them, you know.\""

I'm having trouble finding the source I remember for 3 and 8. I thought they were both in a rumor, but I can't find it now.

There is evidence the Ares are following or think they're following a core entity in the official timeline though.

[george moromisato]

Out of curiosity, what is the status of information released in those early design notes & commentaries we've been referencing?

Classical-mechanics answer: Anything in-game or on the Explore section of the web site is canonical. Everything else is apocryphal (unless it contradicts canon, in which case it is erroneous or heresy).

Quantum-mechanics answer: It depends.

1. The concept of "canon" in a game (in which the player has control over events) is different from that in linear media. Someone on the forums asked whether the Sapphire was the pilgrim's canonical ship. There is no canonical ship. Each time you play the game you are creating canon. The quantum superposition of all possible games is canon.

2. I am far from infallible. I've definitely changed canon before and I'll probably do so again. Unlike George Lucas [henceforth known as He-Who-Ruined-Star-Wars-For-Me] I hope that the changes I make don't materially impact the overall theme and feel of the universe. The Transcendence universe is dark, heroic, ambiguous, and epic. Good coexists with evil, sometimes in the same person. You have the freedom to hack as well as heal. And regardless of the choices that you make, tidy simple answers are seldom found. That will not change.

3. As I've said in other posts, I want to support a multiverse with varying canons. Rather than dividing things into canonical and heretical, I think it is better to think of "distance from canon". For example, which is more canonical, a vanilla game in which the player destroys Eridani or one in which the player uses the Osaka class instead of the Sapphire? Sometimes even vanilla games are less canonical than modded games.

I think the best way to think about it is as a superposition of alternate realities (ARs). Some ARs are very likely; some are very rare. Some can only be reached through mods. If you superimpose all the possible ARs you end up with a fuzzy cloud with a dense center. At the center is canon; outside the cloud is heresy. When does canon turn to heresy? It is impossible to say, and different people may have different answers.

[Aury]

I suppose canon is really just sort of a probability cloud >.>
(I suppose what I should be refering to is like, "alpha-canon"; what happens within the unmodded game but occurs/is/exists regardless of the player's actions (ie, outside events, past events, etc.)

[george moromisato]

I'm having trouble finding the source I remember for 3 and 8. I thought they were both in a rumor, but I can't find it now.

3 is almost certainly from a forum posting of mine, though I can't find it right now either. I think it should be possible for 3 to be true without mucking up the rest of the storyline (or cutting off too many possibilities).

I don't know about 8.

I would like Part I to maintain the following ambiguities (i.e., nothing in Part I should *disprove* any of the following possibilities):

P1. Domina wants to destroy humanity and Oracus wants to save it.
P2. Oracus wants to destroy humanity and Domina wants to save it.
P3. Both Domina and Oracus want to destroy humanity.
P4. Domina and Oracus are working together on a "long-con" to destroy humanity or something else.

In order for P1 to be true, we have to explain why Domina is calling pilgrims to leave the QZ and explain why the Oracus-controlled Penitents want to destroy humanity.

In order for P2 to be true, we have to explain the Iocrym AI's statements and the Huari priest's vision.

In order for P3 to be true, we have to explain why it seems that Domina and Oracus are in conflict.

P4 is already unfalsifiable in Part I (since you can always elaborate the con). I happen to think that this is an unsatisfying outcome, but I think it is OK if players believe it to be possible. Part of the meta-suspense in the storyline is wondering whether the author (me) is stupid enough to come up with such a plot [don't answer that.]

[Aury]

What about the other core minds? Any possibility there could have been interference/meddling from them?

[george moromisato]

I suppose canon is really just sort of a probability cloud >.>
(I suppose what I should be refering to is like, "alpha-canon"; what happens within the unmodded game but occurs/is/exists regardless of the player's actions (ie, outside events, past events, etc.)

Yeah, a probability cloud is a good analogy.

But even what you call "alpha-canon" is not really consistent. For example, the number (and names) of systems between Eridani and St. Kats changes from game to game.

For the purposes of TSB, we should work together to make sure that it stays near or at the center of the cloud [which I believe is your intent.]

For example, now that I know your work on CSC generations, I will avoid adding things to vanilla that would contradict that. The more you can summarize other things like that (in descending order of passionate conviction) the more I can keep vanilla compatible (and the more likely that we can make more parts of TSB "official").

Similarly, use my design notes and other postings to guide your work. Even if design notes are not canonical, they obviously indicate something that might become show up in-game at some point.

In general I need to post more design notes, both to help projects like TSB and other projects (like fan-fiction).

[Aury]

cool ^^

I'm atm currently taking inventory to "Cleaning the shop" so to speak of useless junk (basically concepts, factions, items, mechanics, etc that I do not feel would be very constructive to immersion, gameplay, etc if included), and filling in any apparent gaps, so I probably won't have any draft ideas for you until afterwards. But I will have a complete draft document of all the proposed revised factions.

[Atarlost]

I'm having trouble finding the source I remember for 3 and 8. I thought they were both in a rumor, but I can't find it now.

3 is almost certainly from a forum posting of mine, though I can't find it right now either. I think it should be possible for 3 to be true without mucking up the rest of the storyline (or cutting off too many possibilities).

I don't know about 8.

I would like Part I to maintain the following ambiguities (i.e., nothing in Part I should *disprove* any of the following possibilities):

P1. Domina wants to destroy humanity and Oracus wants to save it.
P2. Oracus wants to destroy humanity and Domina wants to save it.
P3. Both Domina and Oracus want to destroy humanity.
P4. Domina and Oracus are working together on a "long-con" to destroy humanity or something else.

In order for P1 to be true, we have to explain why Domina is calling pilgrims to leave the QZ and explain why the Oracus-controlled Penitents want to destroy humanity.

In order for P2 to be true, we have to explain the Iocrym AI's statements and the Huari priest's vision.

In order for P3 to be true, we have to explain why it seems that Domina and Oracus are in conflict.

P4 is already unfalsifiable in Part I (since you can always elaborate the con). I happen to think that this is an unsatisfying outcome, but I think it is OK if players believe it to be possible. Part of the meta-suspense in the storyline is wondering whether the author (me) is stupid enough to come up with such a plot [don't answer that.]

P1 Domina has a couple solutions actually. Either Domina is a sadist, or the real purpose of the pilgrims is to cut a swath of destruction through the QZ, crippling the forces most likely to break the quarantine. Think about how much damage the player pilgrim does to the Sung and Ares. The player may also cripple the Ringers in the long term by exterminating Ferrians. A Ranx pilgrim that gets his hands on advanced technology would severely damage the Ringers and possibly Teratons.

The evidence of sadism is pretty obvious I think, it just requires assuming Domina did the research on how humans interact with each other.

P1's explanation for Oracus is more tenuous. It's possible the cult of Oracus is like the resistance in 1984. Getting the nihilists and antihumanists out of society renders them harmless. They're handed specs for some absolutely pathetic "high tech" weapons and magic restricted to nonmobile stations to make them think they're accomplishing something, but they're really doing less harm to the ability of humanity to break the quarantine that they would be doing staying in the CW and voting their convictions.

P2 I really don't know how to salvage. The Iocrym AI has no reason to lie to you or to have been lied to. The only solution I can see is that the Iocrym were lied to. Either the proposal was given by someone impersonating Domina or Domina's real goal is to create a situation in which humanity will exterminate the Iocrym. By making and then breaking the quarantine and then leading humanity to the genocide project the Iocrym are set up to be exterminated in self defense.

I'm not sure how to deal with the Huari priest. Some evidence that he's being manipulated by Oracus would help since Oracus has every reason to discourage Domina pilgrims and the excuse for the Brotherhood of Oracus already requires him to be a liar.

The easiest solution is still that QZ Domina is not really Core Domina and that Oracus is a sockpuppet for Core Domina. This cannot possibly be falsified until the pilgrim gets out of the QZ.

[Drako Slyith]

What could happen is that domina is going to destroy QZ, because it is the only way to destroy Oracus. She knows that the Iocrym will probably fail, so her backup is the pilgrims, who will come to her, so she can convince them to destroy the QZ. It explains both the Iocrym and the Huari. Perhaps Humans are carriers of Oracus, he lives in all the Humans, so humans would have to be exterminated to destroy Oracus. The Iocrym say Oracus began to rise when Humans began space exploration, aka Oracus grew strong when the Humans did.